Book Review of The End of Telecoms History by William Webb (January, 2025)
The End of Telecoms History was published by Amazon in the second half of 2024. It was written by Professor William Webb, now an Incyte associate. The basic thesis is that for the past 150 years technological developments in telecommunications have served to provide solutions to specific communications problems, but that era is rapidly coming to an end. Webb argues that we have access now to the data speeds and data capacities that we are likely to require into the future and that there are limits to what individual users can consume. Webb’s arguments are based heavily on recent market evolution in Europe, the United Kingdom and the United States, rather than on broadband markets in developing economies.
Webb’s thesis has been controversial, and that, in itself, is no bad thing. Global equipment suppliers and vendors have been quick to argue that innovation requiring greater data speeds and greater capacity is continuing, and that growth will continue at double digit rates well after the five-year timeframe that Webb has forecast as the time within which the rate of growth in speed and capacity will have declined to zero or near zero.
Even if Webb’s forecasts on timing are not realised, there is evidence that the annual rates of growth in data speed requirements and data capacity requirements have declined in the past 5-10 years. Mobile operators are increasingly finding it difficult to obtain premium prices in mass markets for services with download speeds above 100 Mbps, and to obtain acceptable commercial returns on their investments in 5G (which were largely predicated on the need for greater and greater data speeds). Mobile network operators are becoming skinnier, cutting staff and other costs in order to compensate for static ARPUs and modest overall revenues.
The real value of Webb’s book is to set out some of the consequences of his thesis, even if the outcome is not exactly as he forecasts. He notes that mobile operators are becoming more and more like utilities that provide a connectivity service, with the applications that provide specific service capabilities and functionality being largely provided by others, such as Over the Top (OTT) operators. He notes, rightly we believe, that mobile network operators see themselves as more than basic connectivity providers and are not satisfied with being, ultimately, utilities. The clarification of the business model for mobile operators will, as a result, be played out over a period of time, potentially at the expense of users.
Incyte Director, Jim Holmes, has now contributed a book review of The Ends of Telecom History in the December 2024 issue of the Journal of Telecommunications and the Digital Economy. The December issue may be accessed on the Journal’s website and the book review may be accessed at this link.